Keir Starmer's Backers Begin 'Stop Andy Burnham' Effort to Thwart Manchester Mayor's Commons Comeback
Key supporters of Labour leader Keir Starmer have reportedly started a coordinated campaign to prevent Andy Burnham, the Labour Party Mayor of Greater Manchester, from making a return to parliament. This move follows the resignation of a Manchester MP, which has sparked an upcoming by-election.
Major Barriers in the Selection Process
A number of members on the party's powerful NEC have reportedly suggested it would be virtually impossible for Mr. Burnham to successfully pass through the selection procedure. This is primarily due to the significant number of supporters of the Prime Minister on the committee who are keen to head off any potential leadership challenge.
The party apparatus reportedly sprung into action following the revelation of the MP's planned departure, with officials and MPs raising concerns about the considerable financial cost and political risk of a subsequent mayoral race in Greater Manchester.
Burnham's Ambitions and Internal Disquiet
Andy Burnham has been open about his political ambitions. Previously, he prompted consternation in Downing Street and among cabinet ministers when he remarked that numerous MPs had encouraged him to run for the party leadership.
There has long been speculation that he is seeking a seat in the Commons to potentially contest the Labour leadership should a contest to Sir Keir emerge. Nevertheless, allies of the Mayor have warned against exaggerating the level of any scheming, suggesting he is passionate about his job as mayor and would only return Westminster if he felt he had a meaningful contribution to make.
"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," one ally said.
Current Climate and Public Approval
Amid polls suggesting Sir Keir is struggling in the polls and many MPs despondent about Labour's fate at the forthcoming election, Andy Burnham stands out as the sole senior Labour figure with favourable ratings with the public.
If Mr. Burnham decide to run, multiple hurdles stand in his way. He would need to be selected by the NEC—where the odds are stacked against him—and then win the by-election against challenges from Reform UK and pro-Gaza independents, all before any potential leadership challenge.
The 'Stop Andy' Campaign
Senior Labour sources have indicated that a "Block Burnham" operation is already in progress, with the party's organisation being closely managed by senior aides of the Prime Minister.
The Prime Minister personally commented that the by-election procedure was in its "early stages" and urged his MPs to stop talking about potential leadership challenges.
Andy Burnham, commenting before the MP's resignation was confirmed, told reporters: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."
Financial and Political Dangers
NEC members have allegedly pointed to not only personal opposition towards Mr. Burnham but also the prohibitive cost of a by-election for mayor in Greater Manchester. This could divert around £500,000 in campaign funds from other crucial elections across the country.
"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," a figure stated.
Several sources also expressed concerns about Nigel Farage’s party attempting to win the mayoralty created by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a significant symbolic victory for them.
Union Influence and Procedural Fears
Being an elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's approval to run. There is also speculation the body could impose an women-only shortlist to block his nomination.
Yet, one Burnham ally warned against assuming the NEC would automatically block his candidacy, even though Sir Keir's team is widely thought to dominate it.
The trade unions occupy a significant proportion of seats on the NEC. While the largest unions are currently keeping their counsel, insiders indicated they would be opposed to anything seen as meddling from Downing Street.
The leader of the Fire Brigades Union stated: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."
By-election Battle
The constituency in question has a sizable Labour majority. However, Reform UK is expected to mount a significant challenge, capitalising on support in one part of the constituency. Labour believes it is on firmer ground in the larger Greater Manchester section, though it could encounter a challenge from independent candidates.
Should Mr. Burnham return to parliament, he would need the backing of 80 Labour MPs to launch a leadership challenge, a hurdle that is far from certain given he is regarded with caution by a number of on the parliamentary party.
The departing MP confirmed he was stepping down due to declining mental health, which had made it impossible for him to continue in his role. He is also subject to a parliamentary standards investigation concerning his involvement in an offensive online group.
