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Initially, Trump appeared to embrace a resolute approach on the Ukrainian conflict. Following making warnings of "significant repercussions" last August in case Putin continued hindering ceasefire negotiations, the former president ultimately enacted substantial restrictions on the Russian primary oil companies, Lukoil and Rosneft. This move significantly hindered Putin's capacity to support his aggression in the region.

But, through his latest comprehensive peace initiative for the conflict, that was drafted by US and Russian diplomats excluding Ukraine's or EU participation, he has clearly gone back to his favorable to Russia approach.

Favoring Military Action

Trump's initiative would effectively benefit Putin for occupying Ukraine while leaving Ukraine's democratic system in jeopardy. Despite bold statements that "Ukraine's sovereignty will be affirmed", significant aspects of the initiative in reality weaken that same sovereignty. Seen as a Russian ideal would likely be a disaster for Ukraine.

Demonstrating his business experience, Trump continues to treat the situation in Ukraine as a mere border issue, as if ceding Russia a portion of Ukrainian territory will satisfy the leader. But, Putin's war is not merely about controlling a destroyed region of economically weakened land in Ukraine's east. Rather, it is about Ukraine's democratic governance – and Putin's clear goal to weaken it so it no longer acts as an enticing standard for the Russia's population of the democratic governance that his increasing autocracy withholds them.

Land Giveaways

While keeping in position the presently divided regions of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia, Trump's proposal would require Ukraine to abandon the whole Donetsk province. Beyond favoring the Russian Federation with territory that its troops have been unsuccessful to capture in over a decade of fighting, this concession would leave Ukraine's defenses critically weakened.

This region is the site of the nation's well-known "defensive line", the well-established military defenses that constitute a critical obstacle to invading forces. Trump would have the Ukrainian military leave these fortifications, providing Russian forces a unobstructed way to Kyiv if he later decide to resume the conflict.

Armed Forces Reductions

Then, in a action that would enable renewed fighting simpler for the Russian military, the plan would require Ukraine to diminish the numbers of its armed forces from their current 800,000 to 850,000 soldiers to a maximum of 600,000. Notably, Trump's plan places no such limits on Russian forces.

In what appears as a accommodation to Russia's attempts to characterize the nation's democratically elected leadership as extremists, Trump's proposal asserts: "Every Nazi ideology and activities must be condemned and banned." Apparently to underscore this element, it insists that "The nation will hold elections in this period" of a peace deal. However, Trump imposes no obligation that the Russian leader endanger his authoritarian rule by conducting votes in his own country.

Defense Assurances

To be sure, the plan includes the Russian Federation pledge not to "enter other states" and to "incorporate in legislation its policy of non-aggression towards Europe and Ukraine". However considering that Putin has breached similar accords in the history – for example the 1994 Budapest memorandum, in which the Russian government committed to recognize Ukraine's territorial integrity in return for giving up its Soviet-era nuclear weapons, and the Minsk accords, in which Moscow promised to a halt in fighting and a handback of occupied land in the Donbas to Kyiv – how should the international community trust this commitment this time?

That is why Ukraine has been so adamant on international defense commitments. Although the initiative threatens a "strong coordinated armed reaction" should Russia resume its invasion, and states that "The nation will receive dependable defense commitments", the details include unclear to concerning. The plan would not just prevent Ukraine accession to NATO but also preclude member states from deploying military personnel on the nation's land, effectively blocking the security presence, likely headed by the UK and France, on which Ukraine had been depending to prevent Russia from replenishing his diminished forces, re-equipping, and reinvading.

World Response

A separate supplementary accord reportedly would provide the nation with a alliance-like defense commitment, in which any future "major, deliberate, and ongoing aggression" by Russia on the country "will be treated as an assault endangering the stability and safety of the allied countries." This indicates a defense action. Yet unlike a strong Ukraine's armed forces – Ukraine's primary protection against future invasion – the success of the parallel accord would hinge on the commitment of alliance members, including Trump, to respond militarily to Putin's attacks, a response they have {not